For years, we’ve been saying the Smart Grid space was ripe for a platform play. For months, we’ve been warning you that Google was up to something big. Today, we’re back to draw a line between the two. Google wants to build the platform for collecting, managing, and analyzing home energy information for… well, if they have their way, for everybody on earth.

Google briefed SGN in advance of its announcement. SGN founder Jesse Berst analyzes what Google is saying today and what it will mean tomorrow.

The Official Announcement

Google is announcing Google PowerMeter, which will ultimately become an open platform for home energy information. The initiative is led by Ed Lu, a former astronaut with a background in electrical engineering and astrophysics.

PowerMeter is currently in internal beta testing. About four dozen Google employees have home energy monitors to record their power usage (as proxies for the smart meters of the future). A Home Energy gadget on their iGoogle home pages shows them how much energy they are using. The gadget tracks historical data and forecasts future trends (similar to the displays available for some of Google’s finance applications).

The PowerMeter Platform

Underneath the PowerMeter gadget is an open systems platform that Google equates to Google Maps, the highly successful geospatial system that has become the foundation for thousands of applications.

Although the company uses the Maps comparison, PowerMeter may actually have more in common with Google Android and Google Health. Android is a platform for building mobile phone applications. It deals not just with data, but also with hardware. In a similar fashion, Google PowerMeter will ultimately need to interface with smart meters, thermostats and other devices.

Google Health is a platform that stores sensitive private health information that users can then choose to share with doctors and hospitals. In that regard, it must deal with privacy concerns, something that will haunt PowerMeter as well.

To understand more about the intricacies of a full-blown platform, visit Google's overview of its Android mobile phone platform. And to understand how Google may try to get home users to sign up to PowerMeter, visit its tour of Google Health.  (See the links for each of these at the end of this article.)

Why Go Public Now?

The Stimulus bill and other factors are bringing key conversations to a head. Google doesn’t want standards laid down by others before it has a chance to add its voice; it doesn’t want key vendors building partnerships that lock out Google; and it doesn’t want utilities launching big rollouts without considering Google as a partner. Pivotal choices will be made for the Smart Grid in 2009 and Google wants a place at the table.

What Google Brings to the Party

Google has some valid reasons to promote itself as a foundational platform.

• Scalability. Today’s utility pilots serve (at best) a few thousand people with (at most) a few dozen logged on at any one time. Future systems will need to serve millions of users.
  
• Anywhere access. The ability to get information from any Web browser (today) or any smart phone (coming soon).
  
• Robust programmability. Google is a master at building software stacks, open APIs, programming tools, and core applications that can act as the base for an entire “ecosystem.”
  
• Security. Google understands the complexities of authentication, backups, and privacy as it applies to millions of simultaneous users.
  
• Standards savvy. Google understands the ins and outs of specifying the protocols and formats that allow data sharing at scale.

If the initiative succeeds, it will also bring some much needed leadership to the Smart Grid sector. If we are to get the Smart Grid we need, and in time to help with our many energy problems, we must have both robust platforms and a sense of urgency – two things that Google could bring about if it is willing to spend the effort and money.

What Google Doesn’t Bring (Yet)

• Industry partnerships. Although Google has begun to proselytize, it does not yet have relations with all the key players in the complex electric power sector.
  
• Utility partnerships. Google will also need partnerships with some of the nation’s 3,100 electric utilities. It is in talks with many of them right now; indeed, the PowerMeter announcement is intended to raise its visibility with vendors and utilities alike.
  
• Industry understanding. Google still has only a rudimentary understanding of the complexities of the electric power industry in general, and the regulatory aspect in particular.
  
• Billing and presentment. Google has a great brand reputation, but it doesn’t have a monthly billing relationship with most users. (It makes its money from advertising.) Don’t underestimate the technical and marketing complexities of presenting millions of bills each month.
  
• Killer apps. A home energy gadget is well and good, but it’s not the kind of thing that will have consumers rushing to get on board. The first version is very ho-hum, providing none of the bells and whistles that can be seen from companies such as Tendril, Greenbox, Control4, Gridpoint, and others. Google is toying with ideas ranging from remote control (of your appliances) to contests.

Positioning PowerMeter

Google’s reasons for launching PowerMeter are neither as altruistic as the company will imply, nor as nefarious as their competitors will claim.

In the early days, Google will try to position this as a consumer benefit with slogans such as “consumers should own their own energy information.” But Google will get push back from several groups. Consumer watchdogs will sound the alarm on privacy concerns and on Google as Big Brother. Certain utilities will question Google’s long-term commitment to the industry. And competitors will question Google’s intentions with accusations that it will manipulate the platform the same way Microsoft manipulated Windows.

Make no mistake – Google is entering the space because it sees a huge opportunity. I believe it will cherry pick some of the best application opportunities, building Google-branded apps on top of its own platform. It may also jump into exciting areas such as the software for charging and managing plug-in hybrids. And it may someday participate in the demand response market, essentially making an end run around utilities.

To be fair, Google doesn’t pretend to be anything but a capitalist company. For the time being, it is concentrating on getting the technology right. “We’re not focused on monetization yet,” says Ed Lu. “If we can get that right – and at scale – we’re confident we will find many business opportunities.”

The Size of the Opportunity

What’s got Google so interested? Consider these facts:

• The average American power bill is roughly $1200 per year
  
• The average American gasoline bill is roughly the same
  
• The average American phone bill is roughly half that amount
  
• Many utilities are forecasting that rates will need to double or even triple within the next five years

Think about how much money has been made in the telecomm sector. Think about how outraged people have been at gas hikes. Now think about their likely reaction if their power bills double or triple. And now realize that this opportunity applies to the entire planet. “The grid is actually changing faster in other parts of the world,” confirms Lu. “They are building it out right now, and when they do, they won’t build a 1950s-style system.”

What to Watch for Next

Next up will be counter announcements from other players; indeed, the best way to know just who hopes to become a platform provider will be see which ones try to contest or stall the Google initiative.

The companies most at risk are small startups that overlap into the space Google wants to own, especially those working on home energy management or presentment. Examples include Tendril, Greenbox, Control4, and numerous others. They will have to decide whether to jump on the Google bandwagon, to pursue their own systems instead, or to make the costly attempt to do both. I suspect many of them will adopt watchful waiting for a few months while beginning to explore how hard it will be to port their systems to run on top of PowerMeter.

Expect to see follow up announcements from Google in the next few months announcing key partnerships, including several leading utilities and at least one ISO.

Best of all for those of us who want to see the Smart Grid accelerate, Google’s move will further validate the sector, brining additional attention, additional money and additional competition – all good things for utilities and customers alike.

“The timing is right to do something in this space,” says Lu. “The way we buy and sell electricity is going to undergo huge changes in the next 10 years. And it is happening all over the world.”

   Google PowerMeter site 

   Overview of Google Android

   Tour of Google Health

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