CNET story bungles smart grid predictions

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Correction: 

The original version of this story erroneously ascribed quotes and conclusions to Pike Research. We now hear from Pike that those quotes were from a CNET article. As Pike Research explains in a comment shown below, those quotes do not accurately reflect the actual research study. We regret the error. We stand by our opinion that the opinions expressed by the CNET article are dangerously out of touch.

Quick Take: A news story from CNET about a Pike Research research report stumbles badly in its conclusions about future trends. Companies that place bets based on those conclusions could literally put themselves out of business.

The Pike report addresses the right topics, namely six of the major trends that everybody is talking about. But in at least two areas the CNET article is dangerously out of touch.

For instance, the article trumpets that it will be "normal for people to check what their home is doing in real-time." Trust me – families are never going to gather around the warm glow of their home energy monitors to watch kilowatts in real time. Nor is the connected generation going to stop yelping and twittering to stare at an iPhone version of an electric meter. 

I agree with OPOWER's Ogi Kavazovic who believes that in-home displays will never catch on. If the average electricity bill is, let's say, $100 and the average savings is, let's say, 10%, then we are talking $10 per month. For that amount, most homeowners will scan a report every month or three and then make tweaks to pre-programmed settings. That's it.

This is just one reason that few of the hundreds of home energy monitoring startups will survive the next five years.

Likewise, the story makes unlikely claims about carbon management, asserting it will soon be a common practice. In fact, it will be common when there is a price on carbon and not before. And a U.S. carbon policy will not come into effect until we are long past the recessions, elections and gas crises that currently preoccupy us (if ever).

As a reminder of some trends that have been major discussion points this past year, this CNET article may have some value. But if you believe all of its pie-in-the-sky, Pollyanna optimism you could find yourself headed over a cliff.  – Jesse Berst

Jesse Berst, founder and chief analyst of Smart Grid News, has been covering smart grid technology and marketing trends for the past decade.

A new report says smart grid applications are going to alter how we think about and use electricity in a big way. Released by GigaOm Pro and Pike Research, the report says six major smart grid apps will benefit residential and industrial energy consumers, utilities, car companies and more.

The report, Smart Grid Apps: Six Trends That Will Shape Grid Evolution, identifies the apps that will affect how we deal with electricity: home energy management systems, EVs, distribution automation, smart grid analytics, building energy management systems and carbon management.

According to a CNET News article, the report predicts that we'll routinely check and manage our home electricity use with a home energy management dashboard and our smart phones, and that most of us will have smart appliances, smart electronics – in short, smart homes. That's not to mention car dashboards for EV owners.

The story also says that EVs will have a bigger appetite for electricity than any other appliance in the home – but adds that several applications can help lower the impact on residential utility bills, among them off-peak charging and other integration tools. "The bulk consumption of EVs is also the greatest potential benefit (and threat) to utilities," the report notes.

In other findings, distribution automation will make it possible for utilities to remotely and automatically identify circuit problems and fix them, which will make dealing with power outages faster and easier. Smart grid analytics will have a major impact on how the huge amounts of data are managed and used, and will be critical for successful load management and demand response programs. The story also notes that big companies will work with utilities in energy use and management and take a more active management role – and that carbon management will be a common part of a company's energy profile.

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