Wind power update: good news … bad news

Wind speed forecasting technology a bonus for project investors and developers

Wind speeds in the third quarter of this year were up by about 10% across a wide swath of North America and normal or below normal in most of Europe, says

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renewable energy information services provider 3TIER®. But the big story is that the company's ability to produce wind performance maps and forecast wind speed fluctuations over a period of several years can benefit all stakeholders in wind projects, from the financing folks to project owners and operators. "While the performance maps clearly illustrate the variability of wind resources, the good news is that we have the scientific expertise and technology to account for these fluctuations, incorporate them into a project's financials, and forecast their occurrence with a considerable degree of accuracy," said Kenneth Westrick, 3TIER founder and CEO. That capability means less risk for investors and a valuable tool project developers can use to help optimize production, he added.

Meanwhile... the wind market's flat until next year, with some striking exceptions

Bloomberg New Energy Finance said the global wind industry can expect a flat 2010 in terms of new installed megawatts, with a revival in 2011 although turbine prices will continue to be weak. But growth rates are all over the map as developing nations forge ahead. China's the renewable energy winner at this point with record investment levels in wind amounting to just a little less than half of all investments funneled into wind projects worldwide. Roughly half the wind turbines to go online this year will be whirling away in China. In gloomy contrast, Bloomberg expects wind installations to drop 39% in the U.S. this year compared to 2009, with the drop credited to continuing impact from the financial crisis, relatively low power prices and "an uncertain medium-to-long term policy environment." Bloomberg's Short-Term Wind Market Forecast covers four years and includes 43 markets globally for land-based and offshore wind.

Quick Take: It's not all bad: Bloomberg says that while China successfully climbed to the top spot in wind energy investment, that big appetite needs to be fed — and that means opportunities for European, U.S. and Asian suppliers.  

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