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Ocean Power? Maybe, But It's Still a Long Way From the Smart Grid By SGN Staff Jan 21, 2010 - 12:30:38 PM
A few questions: Will investors and developers really sign on in a big way anytime soon for a technology that hasn't had several years of rigorous testing? And how about the siting and politics of the permitting process for new technologies? How much will it really cost? How long before it's cost-competitive with fossil fuels and natural gas?
A new market report says ocean power (aka hydrokinetic power) could provide 200GW of renewable electricity by 2025 — if trial projects are acceptably successful over the next few years, and if the regulatory environment is right, and if they don't cost too much, and if...
The report from Pike Research is right: It does seem strange that we live on a planet with three quarters of its surface covered with water and haven't paid much attention to ways to tap into it as a major power source.
The report says ocean power is on the edge of widespread commercialization with Britain, the U.S. and Canada in the lead, and could corral 10% to 15% of the global power market by 2030.
The Pike report is, of course, a combination of encouraging and discouraging news. Clint Wheelock, managing director for Pike, said there are more than 300 hydrokinetic projects "in the works" globally. In 2008 the UK installed its first tidal turbine and connected it to its power grid with what appear to be good results.
"The ocean energy business is right on the cusp. The industry is still in a proof-of-concept phase for several key technologies, and the outcome of early pilot projects will determine whether wave energy, tidal energy and other technologies are ready for prime time," Wheelock said.
The good parts are fairly obvious. Ocean waves and tides are predictable (unlike solar and wind), renewable, quiet and the technology apparently isn't as sketchy as it once was.
The research study, Hydrokinetic and Ocean Energy, examined the five primary ocean and hydrokinetic technologies: ocean wave, tidal stream, river (we know dams work), ocean current and ocean thermal. Pike researchers looked at appropriate applications and the practicality of these technologies and also explored the global market for them. They also profiled likely industry players and industry drivers.
The report points out the challenges too: regulatory issues, technology standardization, power transmission and distribution, connecting to the electric grid and cost. Throw in environmental concerns and the logistics of installation and maintenance, too. That, by the way, isn't a complete list but it's enough to chew on.
While we try to be cautiously optimistic about new and evolving technologies for the Smart Grid, ocean power — much like deepwater wind power — raises a whole lot of pretty serious questions. And its chances for success right now seem to be based on a whole lot of "ifs."
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