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Early Warning of Distribution Automation Changes By Jesse Berst May 2, 2006 - 5:02:00 PM
About two years ago, we started telling anyone who would listen that transmission would soon enter a boom phase, and that intelligence and automation would go along for the ride. That prediction is now coming to pass, as documented again in this issue’s Research & Articles section.
About two years from now, distribution automation (DA) will be in the midst of a similar boom. The early signs – the “weak signals” as the futurists call it – are here now if you know where to look. Two years from now the signals will be strong enough for everyone to notice.
Drivers of change We have mentioned some of the forces at work in previous issues. Last month, for instance, I talked about NERC’s evolution into an Electric Reliability Organization. Although aimed primarily at transmission, its new regulations will have a strong “trickle-down” affect in distribution.
Deferred maintenance and growth are two other forces at work in favor of DA. Many utilities simply cannot postpone upgrades any longer – because their equipment is beyond its design life, because growth is demanding expansion, or both.
And finally, technology is an important factor as well. It is finally possible to integrate devices from a variety of vendors and send all the information to a control room. It’s not as easy as it should be. It’s not as easy as it will be two years from now when standards solidify, middleware matures, and the real boom starts. But thanks to new hardware and software, it can be done and at a reasonable price.
The buzz is starting Insiders are starting to sense the shift. When I addressed the Western Power Delivery Automation Conference last month, I took the opportunity to wander the vendor booths and get opinions from people on the “front lines.” Everywhere I went I heard stories of growth and expansion.
The statistics are on our side too. Chuck Newton – the market research guru of substation automation – told me nine months ago he expected DA to experience the same paltry 5% (or less) growth it had seen for years. In his latest research, however, he now predicts growth of double or triple that amount. Some of us think DA will grow even faster, starting in 2008.
What to do next If you are a utility professional who is planning to build or upgrade a substation with the Same Old Thing, I want you to walk straight to the nearest mirror, look at yourself, and then slap yourself upside the head as hard as you can.
Wake up! That new substation will have a life of decades. If you install gear from the 70s and 80s, you are locking that substation away from the future. At best, you will be faced with an expensive retrofit in a few years.
Instead of More of the Same, utilities must focus on a future-proof architecture. They don’t have to figure everything out yet. They don’t have to place all their bets yet. They don’t have to upgrade all their equipment yet. All they need to do is make sure anything installed or replaced is capable of communicating. For instance, it costs much less to install the IEDs and the network in a substation when it is first built, than to retrofit it a few years later. If you have the communications piece in place, you can come back whenever you want and add automation in increments, as makes sense for your situation.
Vendors have a different challenge. More than any other sector I know, distribution automation is dominated by a few big vendors. Those giant firms need to change from the proprietary mindset of the past. They need to realize that victory will go to the company that becomes best at integrating technology from many sources. (This is the same change in thinking that took IBM Global Services from a tired, also-ran to the industry leader in IT.)
Smaller players have to think about partnerships with the giants, of course. Equally important, they have to think about the best points of entry – the gaps where the giants are weak. Without giving away for free the research and consulting we do for a living, I can at least hint at three of the most viable, defensible niches. I describe them as: § Complementary Technologies – providing cutting edge devices that extend the value of the systems sold by the Big Boys. Examples include low-cost line and equipment monitoring, ruggedized and secure communications, and advanced controls and displays. § Middleware Maven – becoming expert at integrating devices from many different vendors. § Systems Integration Deluxe – becoming the trusted brand specifier and installer, while gradually adding products of your own.
That’s my view of the future of distribution automation. Let’s meet back here in two years to see how accurate I was. Meanwhile, I look forward to hearing from you with your comments and opinions. SGN article on NERC’s transition to ERO Newton-Evans World Market for Substation Automation brochure (PDF) Subscribe to our FREE eMail News Alert!
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