The Rainsuit Theory of Grid Modernization

Theorem #1: Dryness is better served by the close-in fit of a rainsuit than the area coverage of an umbrella.  This theorem parallels our industry’s discussion of the merits of distributed solutions close to the load versus the merits of a resilient transmission system that can provide multiple solutions over large areas.  Is it better to serve local loads with local, smaller resources at the load to eliminate transport losses and improve speed of response?  Or, is it better to serve loads over a region with larger, central resources where economies of scale can help control long-term costs? 

A rainsuit serves the exact local need….a dry body and clothing.  An umbrella covers the area, those items that need to stay dry and those items that don’t.  A rainsuit provides better dryness (customer service), but an umbrella is less expensive.  Rainsuits can be tailored and fit to the exact need.  Customizing an umbrella involves picking the large or extra-large version.  Can we afford a “better fitting, designer” grid in the future?  Or do we stay with the bulk power and transmission “umbrella” solutions? 

Mr. Bob Galvin, former Chairman of Motorola, believes the “changes necessary are not incremental.” In a recent EnergyBiz article (September 2007), he stated, “They [American consumers] tolerate the fact that they cannot customize their electric service to meet their needs – though they are able to do so with telephone, television, and Internet services.  This fallacy that perfection in electric service is not possible has stifled the healthy spirit of constructive discontent that breeds innovation and continual renewal.”

As we have stated in this column before, consumers are leading the sea change in our industry. Nearly all innovation in our industry is taking place at the edge of the network, independent of the traditional utility industry, plus consumer grid divorce has grown 33% per year for 10 straight years.  We must not ignore such trends.  By the way, the recently released IBM report, “Plugging in the Consumer: Innovating Utility Business Models for the Future” confirms this change in consumers and suggests critical decisions for utilities over the next five years.

Theorem #2: Dryness is a function of the quality of the rainsuit. As in all things, you get what you pay for.  A Cutter & Buck rainsuit made for golfers serves much better than a rainsuit from the dollar bin at Big Lots.

Mr. Galvin, a product quality guru, tells us in the same article, “I founded the Galvin Electricity Initiative to do my small part by catalyzing the call for renewal.  The initiative aims to develop a perfect power system that best meets the needs of twenty-first century consumers.  Key to achieving this goal is the design and construction of smart microgrid prototypes of perfection.”  The perfect rainsuit!

Rainsuit quality is a function of good infrastructure (fabric) and good transitions (head, hands and feet). Sounds like the modern grid; developing good infrastructure (advanced components, communications, intelligence, etc) and good transitions (advanced metering, demand response, consumer DG programs, dynamic islanding, price-driven load management, markets, etc).

Theorem #3: A rainsuit better serves unforeseen changes in weather than an umbrella. Sudden changes in wind direction are real problems for umbrellas, but no problem for a rainsuit.  Likewise, a drop in temperature usually accompanies rain.  A rainsuit, but not an umbrella, provides “customer service” in this changing environment.

Will a distributed solution at the load provide better risk management for the consumer and utility than a large, resilient transmission based solution?  Hard to tell.  However, the trends suggest that the consumer-base is embracing distributed solutions.  So, maybe the better question becomes how do we manage the risk of consumers and utilities moving to a more distributed solution model?

Problem with the Rainsuit Theory?

As always, there are no silver bullets. Rainsuits or umbrellas alone will not serve all our needs; we have to intelligently apply both to the problems we encounter. Umbrellas are better for sharing among neighbors. Rainsuits provide no cover for equipment. Umbrellas enable you to string a towel through its ribs for drying hands. Not so with a rainsuit.

Mike Heyeck’s I-765 interstate concept for the US grid is like an umbrella (see “Eisenhower Got It Right!” Mike Heyeck, Senior Vice President, AEP, T&D World, October 2007).  A broadly applied I-765 interstate “umbrella” can help us share geo-constrained renewable resources, improve market efficiencies and broaden the reach of demand side options.  Such regional needs are not solved by distributed solutions.

The Bottom Line

When in really nasty weather, you will find me in a rainsuit and an umbrella.  Maybe our industry should do the same.  Apply distributed solutions for specific customer service and risk goals, and apply transmission area solutions for broader goals like managing costs and prices through supply and demand (markets).  Then, in really tough times, we can use both to the advantage of our customers and utilities.

Certainly, more distributed solutions are in our future as an industry. Certainly, there is a strong case for a more deliberately designed transmission infrastructure.  I have a rainsuit and two umbrellas in my car.

Maybe we will evolve to rainsuits with umbrella hats…..not me.

Next month, we will take a look at the McAdams Theory of Grid Modernization.

   Email Steve Pullins  

  Steve Pullins' previous column