SAIC Unveils Software Able to Predict Grid Failures

Science Applications International Corp. (SAIC) has completed work on new software that will predict distribution and transmission system failures days, weeks and even months before they happen. The software, Distribution Monitoring Systems, took almost a year of research before it was ready for release.

In an exclusive interview with Smart Grid Today, project leader Paul Halpin was quoted as saying, "Making predictions like this is a very, very hard problem and we've done some really smart things to solve it."

The ability to accurately predict failures, particularly long-term, will be a valuable addition to the Smart Grid technologies that will enable a smart electric grid to provide reliable, secure sources of energy.

Four components make the software work. These include:

·         A complex event processing engine that evaluates huge amounts of data (collected over two or more years) and measures it against events in the operating life of a device and its likelihood of failure. Halpin cited as an example a voltage spike above a specific level that lasts longer than a specific period of time, which would then be identified as a likely cause of device failure.

·         A database that correlates faults and failures which is able to learn how to spot issues that lead to failures.

·         An artificial intelligence module, a neural network, that can determine from continuing patterns of equipment aberrations, even small ones, if failure will occur sometime in the future. The neural networks, Halpin said, generally deliver more accurate predictions the longer they are in operation.

·         A Web-based user interface and workflow manager that uses open standards and Java. The system includes licensed use of Google Earth to show where predicted failures will occur on a map, and the workflow manager sends email notifications to operators and tracks repairs.

While the Distribution Monitoring System is now being used only in a distribution system, specific rules can be written to enable it to be used in transmission systems, as well.

SAIC, based in Virginia, is a scientific, engineering and technology applications company that works worldwide in energy, national security, environment, critical infrastructure and health.

   Quick Take: "Reliability-center maintenance" (RCM) has been catching on in other industries for years. It combines a database of equipment failure records with remote monitoring to predict failures in advance. It has never caught on in the electric power industry, despite attempts from several startups. The timing may finally be right. Although SAIC has few marketing skills, it does have financial muscle and a cadre of brilliant engineers.

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