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Quick Take: The Wall Street Journal is stating today a concern that many of us have shared for years – namely, that the state's ultra-aggressive renewables mandates will destabilize the grid. In an article titled "California Girds for Electricity Woes," it cites experts who testified at a recent meeting between utilities and California regulators.

One utility executive from Pacific Gas & Electric was quoted as warning: "We see the issue hitting as soon as 2013, 2014, 2015." Although California has plenty of generation (some say a surplus) it doesn't have the right mix. "Many of the solar and wind sources added in recent years of actually made the system more fragile, because they provide power intermittently," said California Energy commission chairman Robert Weisenmiller. He says the state will exceed its renewables targets and "end up closer to 40%."

The Journal says electric utilities are calling for immediate action to prevent rolling blackouts. State officials hope to have a plan in place by July. - By Jesse Berst

 

California's aggressive renewable energy quest could have a serious downside, according to a Wall Street Journal news report. The state has been pushing for more solar and wind power to help cut greenhouse emissions, but the output from those sources fluctuates because they're directly tied to the weather. The bad part: growth of California renewables combined with their inconsistent power delivery could begin gnawing away at electric grid reliability as soon as 2015 and possibly earlier, depending on who you're listening to.

And further compounding the problem: the state is short on conventional electricity generation plants, like natural gas-fired, that could pick up the slack when there's not enough sun or wind and renewable power output falters.

 

Regulators and utilities got together Tuesday to try to come up with a way out of the pending crisis. Californians well remember the price hikes and rolling blackouts of a decade ago. Countermeasures put in place at the time required utilities to always have enough energy available to meet the need, even during times of peak demand – and they were expected to incorporate renewables.

 

"California has been well served by the procurement process since the crisis," Steve Berberich, head of the California Independent System Operator, was quoted as saying in the WSJ article. "The problem is we have a system now that needs flexibility, not capacity."

 

The state certainly is not at a loss for capacity. Its mandate for one-third of its electricity from renewables by 2020 is likely to be around 40% instead, and officials anticipate the state will have 44% more capacity than it needs next year.

 

Jesse Berst is the founder and chief analyst of Smart Grid News.com, the industry's oldest and largest smart grid site. A frequent keynoter at industry events in the U.S. and abroad, he also serves on advisory committees for Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the Institute for Electric Efficiency. He often provides strategic consulting to large corporations and venture-backed startups. He is a member of the advisory boards of GridGlo and Calico Energy Services.

 

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Current Comments (5)

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What about creative destruction

In the EWPC post "The New California Capitalist Model to Initiate the Transformation of the Global Power Industry ( http://bit.ly/EWPC41 )," I said that "I like to know if the intention of the California government is to not allow once again the emerging creative destruction of the power industry to preserve the preexisting order."

José Antonio Vanderhorst-Silverio, Ph.D. - 02/28/2013 - 07:24

RE:WSJ says what we are all thinking

Did WSJ just quote and then patch together a story, or did they model the California grid and the projected power production/load this summer? Is California taking more generators simultaneously as they did a decade ago, or will any work needs to be done be truly coordinated to spread the load? The state has the capacity according to the article, and unless they have dismantled the previous baseload plants - they would be online to help balance the system. There have been countless studies, models and verification of REAL LIFE renewable systems that demonstrate -- if renewable production is distributed over a larger geographic region and there is a diversity in the types of renewable sources that the intermittency from the weather is signficantly dimished. It is not multipled. Putting all the wind in one location is bad, building huge solar plants in a few locations or only in certain neighborhoods is bad. But distributing those same wind plants across the west coast (as it is done now), and putting many solar PV plants on roof tops wide spread geographically as it is done now - reduces the risk. The only problem I can see is the response by the residential solar PV plants to power line disruptions that would then trigger disconnection - "grid instability seen by PV inverter". But this could have been resolved long ago by implementing active ramp up/down controls for the inverters with signaling back to the power company. The Germans have recognized the problem and have been deploying solutions since 2011. I do not know whether or not small and medium scale plants in the US are also implenting utility managed inverter controls.

Dennis Heidner - 02/28/2013 - 11:21

RE: WSJ

i'm a smartgrid neophyte, so pardon me if i've missed a key point. Isn't what you describe, what the smartgrid effort is all about? Upgrading the grid to allow two-way electric flow that's consistent, controllable, and manageable in realtime? As noted, the capacity is there, but the system is built for one way delivery, plant to home/business. Comments appreciated.

John Hickman - 02/28/2013 - 17:12

like in Germany

Seems to be lot of similarity with concerns in Germany. Renewable generation exceeding 20% in 2012 and due to exceed 35% by 2035. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/26/germany-renewables-idUSL6E8IQIA720120726 Transmission infrastructure insufficient for distributed renewable generation, and unpredictable power flows in the distribution grid.

John McDermott - 03/03/2013 - 12:09

Grid Storage

This article highlights exactly why the Storage OIR and Storage Portfolio Standard initiated in California via AB2514 matters. The volatility being addressed cannot be well met by the current performance of existing generator plants. Grid tied energy storage capturing the offpeak or excess generation and deploying it intelligently without additional GHG generation or fuel consumption to level the demand and serve as a shock absorber in the grid is key to the resolution of this issue. It does require that the grid be thought of a little differently but this is not radical, it's technology that we have now and that needs to be deployed.

Stacey Reineccius - 03/04/2013 - 11:25

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