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Quick Take: Frost & Sullivan just told us that the smart grid market continues strong. Now the Northeast Group has taken the time to quantify growth in emerging markets (other than China and India). A group of 25 countries in Eastern Europe, Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia will represent a $27 billion smart metering market and could reach $49 billion by 2020.

Our prediction: Five to ten years from now, we'll discover that some of the countries profiled in this report will have leapfrogged the developed world, just the way countries such as Korea leapfrogged the West in telecommunications and cellular. - By Jesse Berst

The 25 countries identified are in Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, South Africa and Southeast Asia. All are expected to begin smart grid deployments in the next 10 years and 11 are expected to begin large-scale deployments within one to three years. The countries expected to begin relatively early smart grid deployments include Brazil, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Mexico, Poland, Romania, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia and the United Arab Emirates. The study did not cover India and China.

The total number of electric meters in the 25 countries is forecast to reach 406 million by 2020, and 28% of those are under regulatory mandate or goal to be smart meters. According to the report, Emerging Markets Smart Grid: 25-Country Overview, AMI deployments will be the bulk of smart grid implementation, but it adds that there also is "strong potential" for distribution and substation automation and home energy management technologies such as distributed solar generation, and EV supply equipment.

"The majority of smart grid activity to date has taken place in well known markets in North America, Western Europe and East Asia. These developed markets represent more than 95% of the current installed base of smart meters worldwide. However, there are a number of very attractive emerging market countries that have not received as much coverage and have very strong potential for smart metering and other smart grid projects. We view these 25 countries as representing the next wave of activity worldwide, according to Northeast Group, LLC.

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Jesse Berst is the founder and chief analyst of Smart Grid News.com. He consults to smart grid companies seeking market entry advice and M&A advisory. A frequent keynoter at industry events in the US and abroad, he also serves on the Advisory Council of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Energy & Environment directorate.

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