The 3 phases of the smart grid's technology future

By Jesse Berst

In 2010 and 2011, I attended workshops and interviewed experts to peer into the future of the smart grid. And to determine the likely impact of that future on electric power utilities.

After digesting the collective insights from more than 100 experts, I began to see commonalities. The illustration nearby is a 30,000-foot view of the smart grid's first 25 years, as informed by those experts. It shows a simplified, condensed view of likely technology themes. (Elsewhere in this series on Electronomics, I pass along their view of the three likely phases of the business model transition.)

Note #1: The "theme" of each phase merely suggests a likely focus. It does not mean that the theme will disappear in the following phase, only that another activity will get more attention. Thus, installing and interconnecting meters and sensors will be the preoccupation of the first phase. But that job will not be fully completed for years or decades. Which brings us to...

Note #2: As sci-fi author William Gibson puts it, "the future is already here, it's just not evenly distributed." In other words, events are likely to proceed in the order shown once a region begins to modernize. Some regions have been underway for years. Others have yet to start.

Many experts believe smart grid technology will roll out in three phases

Instrument & Interconnect. In the first technology phase, renewable penetration rates increase, interoperability standards arise, and more and more load becomes grid connected (load control switches, programmable thermostats, grid-friendly appliances, grid-connected building automation, home energy management consoles, electric vehicles, etc.) The theme of this first phase will be to instrument and interconnect as much of the value chain as practical by installing smart meters and smart sensors.